Everyone says they’re waiting for a crash.

Almost no one is actually prepared for one.

But Oppenfolio is. And not just in a “we’ll survive it” sense. In a “this is when we make our next best moves” sense.

This post models a hypothetical 10% drawdown in the broader market, say, a July panic triggered by earnings misses, tariff shocks, or political turmoil, and shows how the Oppenfolio framework holds, adapts, and even benefits.

The Setup: A 10% Drop in the S&P

Let’s assume:

  • The S&P 500 falls 10% over three weeks
  • TSLA and other volatile names drop 15–25%
  • High-yield funds face NAV stress
  • Volatility spikes
  • Retail sentiment plummets

In that environment, traditional portfolios scramble:

  • 60/40s take a 6–8% hit
  • Dividend aristocrat portfolios give up 10–12%
  • Tech-heavy portfolios bleed out

What happens to Oppenfolio?

How the Shell Holds

Our 80% ballast:

  • TFLO: flat (cash equivalent)
  • JAAA: –1% at worst
  • VRP: –1.5% to –2.5%
  • JEPI: –4% to –6%, buffered by option premiums
  • PFFA: –3% to –5%, with yield still flowing

The total drag from shell components in a broad crash? Roughly –1.5% to –2.5% on the portfolio.

But guess what’s still happening?

✅ Monthly dividends from JEPI, PFFA, VRP, JAAA, even TFLO
✅ Steady payouts buffering paper drawdowns
✅ Zero panic selling

This is why income matters. It keeps the machine running even when prices don’t.

What the Fuel Does

The 20% fuel layer gets messy, but not fatal:

  • TSLY: down 20–30%
  • CRSH: up 10–20% (counterbalancing TSLY)
  • MSTY, USOY: down 10–15%

Fuel hurts, but it’s sized to survive. And more than that, it creates tactical openings. Because now:

  • You’re collecting cash
  • You’re sitting on dry powder
  • You’re watching assets you like get 20–30% cheaper

And here’s the kicker: with income assets, lower prices mean higher forward yield. Buying PFFA or JEPI 20% down doesn’t just mean eventual price recovery, it means you’re locking in better income for years to come. Your cost basis drops. Your effective yield rises. Your future compounding accelerates.

That’s not fear. That’s leverage, the good kind.

The Rebalance Trigger

As fuel and core drop in price, your allocation drifts:

  • Shell becomes overweight
  • Fuel becomes underweight

And now you have a choice:

  • Rebalance using cash and dividends to restore target weights
  • Or let the structure lean defensively until volatility cools

Either way: you’re acting from a position of strength, not survival.

But What If It Gets Worse?

Let’s say the crash extends into a full bear market. Now you’re six months in, and:

  • Equity markets are down 20%+
  • YieldMax ETFs get crushed
  • Volatility is elevated
  • Consumer sentiment tanks

And yet:

  • TFLO, JAAA, VRP are still alive
  • JEPI, JEPQ are still paying
  • Core and Fuel are now dirt cheap
  • You’ve collected 10–15% of your portfolio’s value in cash just from dividends during the downturn

You now have more money than you started with, not in NAV, but in available cash flow.

You can:

  • Buy depressed assets
  • Shift allocations
  • Rebuild position sizes

You’re not just surviving the bear.
You’re funding your own recovery.

And when the bounce comes? You own the same assets everyone else wants, at crisis prices, with better yield, and no emotional baggage.

What Could Actually Kill It?

Short of the entire financial system failing, what breaks Oppenfolio?

You’d need:

  • Broad dividend suspensions across high-yield ETFs
  • Breakdown in options markets (e.g., JEPI can’t write calls)
  • Bond defaults in investment-grade floating debt

But if that happens? The market’s not just down, it’s frozen. That’s not a crash. That’s an apocalypse.

In that case:

  • VTI holders are wrecked
  • Real estate yields collapse
  • Treasury bonds get haircut

If yield dries up across the entire structure of public markets, you’ll be grateful you even had Oppenfolio running as long as it did.

But anything short of that? Oppenfolio holds. Pays. And waits for blood in the streets.

The Waiting Game

So when people say they’re waiting for a crash:

  • You’re not just waiting
  • You’re preparing
  • You’re funding your future buys
  • You’re watching for discounts, not panicking over drawdowns

And when the sale finally comes?
You’re walking in with cash flow, dry powder, and conviction.

Oppenfolio was built for exactly this.

Not to avoid the crash.
But to capitalize on it.

If you want to explore the exact ETF mechanics behind the fuel layer, or see a live rebalance during a red week, drop me a note or start here.

Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and reflects personal opinions, not financial advice. OppenFolio is not an investment advisory service. See site disclaimer for full details.