Posts

The sentence sounds stupid. “The market always goes up.” It sounds like blind optimism, like something a person says right before they lose money, like a meme people repeat because they want the world to be simpler than it is. But I keep coming back to it. Not every stock. Not every fund. Not every year. Not every decade. Not every entry point. But the broad market, given enough time, has one dominant long-term behavior: it falls, it panics, it scares everyone, it recovers, and then it makes new highs. And then everyone acts surprised. ...

A small, quiet constraint There is a hard limit on how much AI I’m allowed to use at work. It isn’t philosophical. It isn’t ethical. It isn’t technical. It’s a line item. I have a $100 per day token cap. I can see it. I can track it. And because of it, I usually run two or three AI instances in parallel, carefully, deliberately, rationing usage the same way early internet users rationed minutes. ...

A bad week does not invalidate a long arc OppenFolio is down about 5% right now. That’s uncomfortable, but not unusual. We saw the same thing in December. A fast selloff, a lot of confident doom talk, and then — just as fast — a recovery that erased the losses within a week. I didn’t sell then. I’m not selling now. This post is my attempt to explain why, without pretending volatility doesn’t exist, and without dismissing the bear arguments as stupid. They aren’t. They’re just incomplete. ...

Yesterday the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again. A quarter point. A small move. The kind of adjustment that barely matters in a vacuum. Except nothing happens in a vacuum anymore. I didn’t even need to check the news. The moment the announcement hit, the charts all snapped upward at the same second. Indexes don’t celebrate, not really—they react. They obey the math. Lower rates mean cheaper money. Cheaper money means higher valuations. The market doesn’t clap. It calculates. ...

Writing this before we know I’m writing this the night before the open. NVIDIA has just dropped another absurd quarter of AI-fueled revenue, the headlines are already calling it historic, and the futures are twitching. By the time you read this, we’ll know which version of reality we woke up in: Green candles everywhere, “AI is back, baby.” Or another ugly leg down, “the bubble has popped.” I have no idea which one we get. ...

If you’ve been watching MSTY in your brokerage app lately, you might have felt the same whiplash I did. Bitcoin sells off hard. MicroStrategy (MSTR) follows. MSTY suddenly drops 8–12% in a single day. You open the holdings page for comfort and see… a pile of short-term U.S. Treasuries. Wait. How can something that looks like a T-bill fund on the surface trade like a leveraged Bitcoin sidecar underneath? Shouldn’t those Treasuries give it some kind of floor? And if the market price is down double digits, why is the discount to NAV only 0.03% or whatever your broker shows? ...

If you hang out in FIRE spaces long enough, you see the same script: “Max your tax-deferred accounts, buy broad index funds, follow the 4% rule, coast into retirement.” It’s a good script. But there’s a silent assumption baked into it: That growth in tax-deferred accounts is obviously superior, and That anything involving taxable income and dividends is a sucker’s game. I don’t think that’s always true. This isn’t a “4% rule is dead” post. This is: “If you want $4,000/month forever, is there a way to get there faster than a taxed 4% rule?” ...

The Skylight Bug Early in my career we built digital signs for retail stores—solid hardware, clean code, perfect test results. Then one location started failing every afternoon at three o’clock. Same code. Same network. Same everything. We tore through logs for days. Nothing. Finally, someone flew out and saw it in person. A skylight was focusing a beam of sunlight directly onto the unit each afternoon. The system wasn’t crashing—it was cooking. ...

Oppenfolio isn’t a brokerage. It’s a mirror. The site pulls the same raw account data that E*TRADE does, symbols, share counts, dividend histories, but displays it through a lens I actually trust. A custom set of scripts, charts, and rolling-yield math that turn noise into something readable. Where the broker’s dashboard chases excitement, Oppenfolio measures reality. That contrast became obvious this week. Just this week, my E*TRADE account told me I’d earn $23,000 in dividends this year. Today it says $19,000. I didn’t sell anything. I didn’t buy anything. Nothing changed. ...

Do you think you can time the market? The honest answer separates two kinds of investors. Bob buys steadily, week after week, no matter what the market’s doing. He doesn’t overthink entry points. He just follows the plan, trusting that time and compounding will smooth the rough edges. Alice, on the other hand, waits for the perfect moment. She studies the charts, watches for red days, and only buys when the market dips. Her logic is sound: why pay full price when you can wait for a sale? ...